DIRTRACKR Daily Podcast - Episode Transcript
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Kyle Larson Bristol late model favorite, Outlaws & Lucas this weekend | DIRTRACKR Daily 3/19/21
It is Friday, March 19th, two thousand and twenty one and you are tuned into DIRTRACKR Daily. I'm Justin Fiedler.
Today we are talking Outlaws at Cotton Bowl, Lucas at Brownstown and Atomic, a busy weekend ahead for Bristol, and much more, so let's jump in.
The World of Outlaws Sprint Car Series takes to Cotton Bowl Speedway in Texas tonight and tomorrow for the Texas Two-Step weekend. One of the big things we've been talking about through the first six Outlaw races of 2021 is the parity for the series so far. We've had six different winners through the first six races. Logan Schuchart has been the most consistent of the championship contenders, winning a race at Volusia and being the only driver to finish in the top ten in every race so far. That consistency is why he's atop the points standings currently, by two points over Brad Sweet. David Gravel, Donny Schatz, and Carson Macedo round out the rest of the top five. We are also still on 300 watch for Donny Schatz, as he currently sits on 299 career World of Outlaws wins, and it's been 13 races since he last won a feature, going back to Williams Grove for the National Open in October of 2020. He's been very good this season though, bagging two All Star wins, and five top fives and five top tens in six starts with the Outlaws. He's the only driver in the top five in the standings without a win in 2021. This weekend's racing at Cotton Bowl will be the Outlaws first trip to the 3/8 mile Texas track since April of 2018. David Gravel was the winner that night, leading all 35 laps to take the win over Sweet, Jason Johnson, Cory Eliason, and Daryn Pittman. We will also see the 2021 debut of rookie of the year contender James McFadden this weekend with Kasey Kahne Racing. As we talked about Wednesday, McFadden has been in Australia awaiting the birth of his child and Kasey Kahne has been keeping the seat warm of the KKR number nine until McFadden could get to the States. He has a big hole to try and dig himself out of though, as he trails fellow rookie Aaron Reutzel by 340 points.
Looking at tonight and tomorrow, the dirtrackr.com analytics prediction formula has win chances as a near tossup between Brad Sweet and David Gravel. Over the past three plus seasons, Gravel's 3/8 mile average finish is the best in the series at 4.64, which includes seven wins. Sweet has more 3/8 mile wins than Gravel with nine, but trails in average finish by about a tenth of a position. This could also be a good weekend for Schatz to get that big win. His average finish on 3/8 mile tracks is identical to Sweet's, and he has five wins in recent seasons. Two drivers I hope we see some improvement from this weekend are Parker Price-Miller and Gio Scelzi. After a very respectable 2020 for PPM which included a win at 34 Raceway in July, it's been a struggle to start 2021 with his own team. Through the first six races he has just one top ten finish, an eighth at Volusia, and he was 16th and 22nd last weekend. His average feature finish is six positions worse this season vs. last. As for Gio, it's been an up and down season so far. He started off the All Star season with three straight top tens, including a fifth at East Bay. He also has a 3rd and a 7th win the Outlaws, but he also has four finishes worse than 15th. They've made a lot of changes to that team in recent weeks, including the addition of crew chief Bernie Stuebgen, and I hope they can get it rolling in the right direction. I do think Gio is one of the serious young talents in sprint car racing right now. If you cannot be at Cotton Bowl this weekend, watch live all weekend long on DIRTVision with your fast pass.
After more than six weeks off, the Lucas Oil Late Model Dirt Series returns to action this weekend at Brownstown and Atomic. Atomic was originally scheduled for tonight, but that race was moved to Sunday with weather in Ohio today. Brandon Overton is the series points leader after the first nine races on the strength of a win, five top fives, and eight top ten finishes. He's trailed by Hudson O'Neal, Devin Moran, Tim McCreadie, and Brandon Sheppard rounds out the top five. We had eight winners in the first nine races, with Tyler Erb leading the way with two wins. Josh Richards, Stormy Scott, Brandon Overton, Ricky Thornton Jr., Shane Clanton, Kyle Larson, and Hudson O'Neal all each have one win apiece. Saturday's Indiana Icebreaker at Brownstown pays $15,000 to win, while Sunday's Buckeye Spring 50 at Atomic is a $12,000 to win show. The series didn't race at Atomic in 2020, while Josh Richards and Tim McCreadie bagged Brownstown wins in September last year. The opening stretch of races in Florida to start the season was wild, and some big names didn't fair so well, including Jonathan Davenport and Jimmy Owens. Davenport is way down in 13th in the standings, and isn't going to race at Brownstown on Saturday as he's in Bristol. With Atomic moving to Sunday, I don't know if the team will try and make the five-hour trek. Defending champion Owens' best finish was in the season opener at All-Tech where he finished fourth, but he only had two top fives and three top tens through the opening nine nights. He struggled through the final races of 2020, even as he was being crowned champion, and that has seemed to continue into 2021. His average feature finish is nearly 10 positions worse this season vs. last, and he's currently mired down in 14th in the standings. It will be interesting to see how this season plays out, at least for the next few months. I don't believe the status for points leader Overton or third place Moran is set, and Sheppard will be full time with the Outlaws. So potentially three of the top five in in the race for the Lucas title might not race full time this year. That leaves things pretty wide open, especially for guys like O'Neal, Tim McCreadie, and others down the order.
Looking at some win predictions for this weekend, the dirtrackr.com analytics prediction formula likes Tim McCreadie at Brownstown. He leads win chances by a decent margin over Ricky Thornton Jr. And because McCreadie has the best average finish over the previous five races, he leads win chances at Atomic as well. Brandon Overton doesn't have a great average finish on 3/8 mile tracks, and the 1/4 mile track data is limited for him, which is why he doesn't appear higher from the formula. If you cannot attend Brownstown or Atomic this weekend, you can watch all the action live on MAVTV Plus.
Speaking of the major dirt racing series, did you know that through 26 races so far this year between the Outlaw sprint cars, late models, Lucas, and the All Stars, we've only had one winner from the pole? It was Kyle Strickler with the World of Outlaws Late Models at Volusia on January 16th.
Not long after I posted yesterday's show, action for the day at Bristol was cancelled due to rain. That means they will have a busy Friday and Saturday to get racing completed for all divisions. A full day is on the card for today, with super late models, sport mods, modifieds, and 602 late models each getting their turn. The first on track action is at 230 PM ET with super late model hot laps and group qualifying. There is some nice money on the line today, with the super late model feature paying $10,000 to win, the sportmod feature paying $5000 to win, the modified feature paying $7500 to win, and the 602 late model feature paying $5000 to win. Even with Lucas in action this weekend between Brownstown and Atomic, the super late model field is stacked, and besides NASCAR drivers Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, and Chase Elliott competing, there are some big names on the entry list. Scott Bloomquist, Earl Pearson Jr., Kyle Strickler, Billy Moyer, Mason Zeigler, Darrell Lanigan, Bobby Pierce, Chris Madden, Jonathan Davenport, Ross Bailes, Rusty Schlenk, and many more will take to the Bristol high banks the next two nights. Saturday night's 40 lap feature for the supers pays $50,000 to win. We know Davenport, Strickler, and Bloomquist all tested in advance of the event, so it will be interesting to see if they have any sort of advantage in tonight's races. As for a win pick, Kyle Larson feels like the favorite here. He's been so good in that Rumley six every time they show up, including a win at All-Tech with Lucas back in January. I'm not sure how you bet against that combination of Larson and Kevin Rumley, especially on a track and surface that these drivers have no experience on. I'm also super curious to see what Chase Elliott and Kyle Busch can do the next two nights. Elliot hasn't been in a super late model, but is obviously incredibly talented, and even though it's been a while for Busch, he'll be a good car partnering with Davenport and his team. Drop me a comment below if you're watching on YouTube or Facebook, or on social media and let me know who you're picking to win this weekend. Don't forget you can watch all weekend long on XR+.
We've had two weekend cancellations already, with both Williams Grove in Pennsylvania and Ocean Speedway in California calling off their Friday night programs because of weather. Williams Grove will run 410s and the ULMS late models next Friday night, the 26th, while Ocean will return with their normal weekly racing next weekend.
There are 12 items on the streaming schedule for today. DIRTVision has the World of Outlaws Sprint Cars from Cotton Bowl, Fast Four has the West Coast Nationals from Red Bluff, Flo has action from Beachlands in New Zealand, the IMCA Spring Nationals from Beatrice, and the ASCS from Devil's Bowl. MAVTV Plus has the POWRi National Midgets at Monarch, RacinBoys has the ASCS and Oil Capital Racing Series from Creek County. Speed Sport TV has the Modoc 100 and modifieds from Cocopah, and XR+ again has racing from the Bristol Dirt Nationals. To see the full daily streaming schedule through the weekend, with links to watch, visit dirtrackr.com/watchtonight.
That's it for the show today, hope everyone has a good Friday and a good weekend.
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