DIRTRACKR Daily Podcast - Episode Transcript

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Inside the World of Outlaws title fight, can Gravel & Macedo catch Sweet | DIRTRACKR Daily 8/31/21

Today is Tuesday, August 31st, two thousand and twenty one. Welcome into DIRTRACKR Daily. I'm Justin Fiedler.

Coming up we do a deep dive on what's happening with the World of Outlaws title fight by the numbers. Where can David Gravel and Carson Macedo make ground down the stretch. We also look ahead to tonight's Short Track Super Series race and have news from Lucas.

Before we dive in, if you like what I'm doing here, please subscribe to the show, leave a review, and hit those follow and notification buttons depending on where you consume this. Make sure to follow @dirtrackr on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, and TikTok. And don't forget dirtrackr.com has a bunch more cool dirt racing stuff. Now, let's get going.

As the summer starts to wind down here, we are seeing some drivers start to stretch away for some of the championships in the major series. Tyler Courtney with the All Stars is one. Brandon Sheppard with the World of Outlaws Late Models is probably another. But there are still several series that have races that are far from being decided. All three USAC divisions are very close, as is the ASCS National Tour. We also have two that are kind of in the middle in Lucas and the World of Outlaws Sprint Cars. One driver has a decent lead, but things could change rapidly. I wanted to take a look specifically at the World of Outlaws Sprint Car Series to see where Brad Sweet has been better than David Gravel and Carson Macedo and walk you through where those two challengers need to be better over the final 19 races. There are actually 20 nights left for the Outlaws, but Thursday of World Finals is just practice and qualifying, so we are at 19 barring any weather cancellations or other things. When you look around the country at the various series, a driver really needs to have an average finish near 5th or so to be in contention. The only major series with a significant number of races where the points leader has an average finish higher than that is with Lucas. Tim McCreadie's average finish for the year is 6.8. Everywhere else you are looking at average finishes in the fives or maybe high fours. And the Outlaws are no different. Brad Sweet's average finish for 2021 so far is 4.98. His challengers in Macedo and Gravel obviously trail him in this stat, with Macedo sitting at 6.47 and Gravel at 6.5. With the way most points systems reward consistency, average finish seems to be the closest indicator we have for championship success. So when you look at those initial numbers, it's easy to say that Brad just finishes ahead of those guys, and that's it. He's better, and he's going to win. But it's not that simple. There are places that Gravel and Macedo can improve down the stretch to really take the fight to the KKR 49. When you break the night up into it's various segments, Gravel and Macedo are actually doing a great job early in the night. You hear all the time about how important qualifying is with the Outlaws, and both drivers have been better than Sweet in time trials in 2021. Gravel is qualifying 1.3 spots better than Sweet and leads the series with 12 quick times, and Macedo is more than half a position better. That in turn has led to better heat race performances for the two challengers. Gravel and Macedo top the series in heat race wins at 26 and 22 respectively, and they are both better than Sweet in heat race average finish. From there, it becomes all about the dash. 90% of Outlaw races this year have been won from the first six starting spots, so getting into the dash is crucial to have a chance at the win. Again, those better heat race performances for Gravel and Macedo keep the party rolling, and both drivers have been better than Sweet in dashes. They are tied at the top with eight dash wins each, to Sweet's four, and they have appeared in more dashes than the 49. Of a possible 56 dashes, Gravel has been in 38, Macedo 39, and Sweet only 31. Better heat races, more dash appearances, and better dash finishes have then led to better starting positions for the challengers. Gravel is starting features eight tenths of a position better than Sweet, and Macedo is more than half a position better. So after looking through all of these stats, early in the night, the advantages are very much in favor of Gravel and Macedo. But when things really matter come feature time, that's when Sweet shines and his competition falters. The most glaring stat in features is Sweet's incredible plus/minus. Whereas both Gravel and Macedo have negative plus minus numbers, meaning on a cumulative basis, they have actually lost positions in features from start to finish, Sweet is second in the series at plus 120. That's how you average starting about seventh and average finishing about fifth. You pass a boat load of cars. Brad also does a better job of protecting his positions. So far this year he has 31 top five starts and 28 top five finishes. That's a top five efficiency of 90%. When Brad starts up front he stays there. Gravel and Macedo are both in the 60th percentile in that same stat. And the same is true for top ten efficiency. Brad protects top ten starting spots better than both his challengers as well. All of this equates to when the green flag drops, Sweet is going forward, and Macedo and Gravel are going backwards. What can we equate this to? I think we are looking at three different areas. First is minimizing bad nights. Up to this point, Macedo has seven finishes of 15th or worse, Gravel has four, and Sweet has just one. Can these guys avoid mechanical failures and crashes. We've certainly seen some bad luck and crashes for Macedo. Second is setup. Gravel and Macedo are working with their teams for the first time in 2021, while Sweet has been with Eric Prutzman for several years now, including those two championships. Nobody will doubt the talents of Philip Dietz and Cody Jacobs, but there is no substitute for time together and chemistry. Maybe Prutzman is just making better adjustments before features. And the third factor is managing your equipment. Without lap by lap data, it's hard to get a real judge on this, but it's certainly possible that Brad just does a better job saving his stuff for later in the race. Macedo and Gravel are both aggressive competitors, and it's not hard to make the leap that they just burn their stuff up too quickly and fade later in races. Again, without lap data we don't know for sure, but it's something to think about. Going forward, it's easy for me, the internet guy, to just say hey, be better in features. Obviously it's not that simple. But if I were part of Big Game or JJR, I'd be looking really hard at how my teams were going about their business before and during features. They've got the early part of the program locked down, but there are clearly gains to be made late in the night. What better adjustments can be made. How can they avoid those bad nights, etc. If you'd like to take a look at any of the numbers I've mentioned here, everything is available publicly and free at dirtrackr.com/analytics.

It's another Tuesday and we have another round of northeast modified racing to check out tonight with the Short Track Super Series north region headed to Thunder Mountain Speedway in New York. Following tonight, only two weekends of racing remain for the north region in 2021. They are the Fonda 200 weekend with pays $53,000 to the winner, and the season finale at Afton Motorsports Park in October. Matt Sheppard currently leads the north region standings by 19 over Anthony Perrego, with Andy Bachetti 89 points back in third. Sheppard and Stewart Friesen each have two wins this season in north region events, while Perrego, Steve Paine, and Jeff Strunk all have one each. The series hasn't appeared at Thunder Mountain since 2019. Billy Decker is the most recent winner, while Bachetti, Danny Creeden, and Perrego have all bagged wins in recent years there as well. Also on the card for tonight are crate 602 sportsman. Grandstands open at 4PM ET tonight, with racing at 7PM. For more event information, hit up shorttracksuperseries.com.

The Lucas Oil Late Model Dirt Series announced yesterday they have cancelled the upcoming September 15th stop at the I-80 Speedway in Nebraska because of current tire shortages affecting the sport. That race night was going to lead into the Late Model Knoxville Nationals at Knoxville Raceway. With the event cancelled, that just leaves the three nights on Knoxville on tap for that weekend, and the series does plan to return to I-80 Speedway in 2022. For more on the announcement and to see the full Lucas schedule, visit lucasdirt.com.

On yesterday's show I confused the King of the West's weeklong points for the season long standings. I wanted to correct that today. In the season standings, Dominic Scelzi leads Bud Kaeding by 39 with 13 of 20 races complete. DJ Netto, Tim Kaeding, and Sean Becker complete the top five. The series is in action this weekend on Saturday and Sunday at the Silver Dollar Speedway for the Louie Vermeil Classic. For more info, check out narc410.com.

There are four items on the streaming schedule today, with all of them over on FloRacing. They have weekly racing from Action Track USA, the Nebraska Dirt Crown from Thayer County, the Short Track Super Series and Flo 24/7. To see the full daily streaming schedule with links to watch, visit dirtrackr.com/watchtonight.

That's it for the show today, hope you have a good Tuesday. If you have thoughts about the topics on today's show, leave them in the comments below or tweet at me.

Thanks everybody for tuning in, I'll see you tomorrow for more DIRTRACKR Daily!