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What dirt late model drivers need to accomplish to make the Lucas Chase for the Championship | Daily 2-23-2023

What's it going to take to make the Lucas championship four at Eldora? We'll dive into the numbers today, plus we'll preview tonight's 410 action at Lincoln and we've got news from the ASCS. Let's go!

It's Thursday, February 23rd, I'm Justin Fiedler. This is DIRTRACKR Daily.

With DIRTcar Nationals done, dirt late model racing for Speedweeks is complete, and now we'll get a bit of a break before the season continues in March. I wanted to double back and talk about Lucas a bit, especially when it comes to their new Chase for the Championship format. Back in December at the PRI Show, the Lucas Oil Late Model Dirt Series announced they will decide their 2023 champion with their version of a playoff type system, with four drivers going to Eldora for the Dirt Track World Championship with a shot at the title. There are four rounds of elimination through the season, starting with the May 27th race at Lucas Oil Speedway, followed by July 15th at that same track, August 26th at Port Royal, and September 30th at the Pittsburgher. 15 to 12 to 8 to then the final four. There are cash bonuses along the way, the champion gets $200,000, and the total point fund is just a little over a million bucks. I wanted to double back to this though, because I wanted to try and get some idea of what drivers will need to do to get into that final four, in terms of performance this season. Unlike what we see with say the NASCAR playoff format, the points standings still very much matter with Lucas. In NASCAR, a win basically gets you in, but that's not true here. A driver and team must find their way into that top four by the Pittsburgher to have that shot via the traditional points structure. So if we take the previous three seasons, we can get some idea of what it might take to do just that. This coincides with the data I have available on Lucas in the dirtrackr.com analytics database. In 2020, your Lucas top four were Jimmy Owens, Tim McCreadie, Jonathan Davenport, and Josh Richards. In 2021 it was McCreadie, Hudson O'Neal, Davenport, and Owens. And this past year it was McCreadie, Brandon Sheppard, Ricky Thornton Jr., and O'Neal. The fourth place man each of those three years scored an average of 6,863 points, but that number will vary depending on how the schedule shakes out. If we look at average finish, which seems to be the best correlation we have for championship success with these formats that reward consistency, here is what we find. The average finish for the three champions back to 2020 was 6.4. Owens was 6.89, and McCreadie had average finishes of 6.11 and 6.2 in each of his championship runs. Basically, if you can get into the sixes with Lucas, you'll have a shot. The second place drivers averaged a finish of 7.68 those three years, while third was 8.5. And that all important fourth, which will be the final spot, those drivers averaged a finish of 9.53. As for the other major stat categories for that fourth and final spot, we've seen an average win count of 3.33, an average top five count of 15.33, and an average top ten count of 30.33. So grab three wins, 15 top fives, and 30 top tens with an average finish inside the top ten, and you'll have a good shot to be in the mix come Eldora later this year. If you want those numbers as percentages, you'll need to win 6.8% of races, finish top five 31.5% of the time, and finish top ten in 62.3% of races. Taking a look at the current Lucas standings through the first 10 race nights, these numbers and percentages appear to be in the ballpark. Tim McCreadie has that fourth spot with an average finish right now of 10th on the number. Devin Moran is on the outside looking in, averaging a finish of 10.5. If you want some early predictions based on these numbers and recent past history, I like McCreadie and RTJ for sure. The other two spots will be a battle between O'Neal, Moran, and Davenport, and I'd probably give the edge to O'Neal and Davenport in that group. I think the next two out are Tyler Erb and Earl Pearson Jr., and potentially Tanner English if he goes Lucas instead of Outlaws. The problem for the championship four though, will be if Davenport is in that group. In recent years, only Brandon Overton has more victories at Eldora than Davenport, but JD leads in top fives and top tens. JD is second in average finish to Overton, with McCreadie third. RTJ, Moran, and O'Neal will have serious work to do on their Eldora packages. So there you go, an idea of what it will take to go to the Dirt Track World Championship with a chance. If you want to see any of these numbers for yourself, find the Lucas Oil Late Model Dirt Series over at dirtrackr.com/analytics.

Before we move on, a quick shoutout to some new channel members who have joined in recent days. Thanks to Dirt Track Pools, Jim, Greg, and Jason for jumping in with extra support. We are now at 55 total I believe. Channel membership is $2.99 a month, and gets you some added perks like a merch discount, shoutouts, and more. To check out the program and to support what I'm doing here, click the join buttons on the channel or videos, or visit youtube.com/dirtrackr/join. If you want to help out in a free way, make sure you're subscribed to the channel, that will help make sure you don't miss future episodes, and hit that like button on the videos. That thumbs up button tells YouTube you liked this video and it encourages them to share it with more folks.

Tonight at Lincoln Speedway in Pennsylvania, the 410 sprint car season for the Posse regulars gets underway. The Icebreaker weekend wasn't officially supposed to start until Saturday, but a chilly weather forecast for the coming days, combined with a spectacular day on hand today had the track promoters rethinking things. So while they monitor conditions for Saturday and Sunday, they went ahead and added a $5000 to win show tonight. We talked back on Monday about the interesting backlash Lincoln faced for the move, but it looks like they'll have a decent field of cars, and this is one we'll get to see on FloRacing as Lincoln has scaled back that streaming slate for 2023. Looking around on the interwebs it looks like we'll see at least Chad Trout, Anthony Macri, Alan Krimes, Brent Marks, Justin Peck, Danny Dietrich, Tyler Street, and Michael Lutz. I'm sure there are plenty more than that who are coming, but those are the ones I've seen on social media with a cursory look. Freddie Rahmer is the reigning Lincoln track champion, picking up six wins a year ago and topping Dylan Norris and Danny Dietrich. Double D was tied with Rahmer with six Lincoln victories in 2022. Other drivers with multiple wins at the track last year included Anthony Macri, Matt Campbell, and Brent Marks. If you are nearby, tickets are $20, and the grandstands are set to open at 5:30PM eastern. Or, like I said, you can watch live on FloRacing.

We talked last Wednesday about the ASCS losing Lucas Oil as their series title sponsor, but it doesn't appear to be slowing them down at all. Yesterday, the national tour for 360 sprint cars announced they will again have a $200,000 point fund on the line, with the champion earning $50,000 of that. In the release, series owner Terry Mattox said quote "With Lucas Oil backing down across the board, there has been rumor spreading, and I just wanted to make sure that everyone knows that I am not cutting anything. To say this wasn’t a setback would be false. It stopped me from increasing the point fund as originally planned, but I won’t be going backward either. Just another hurdle to clear in making things better" unquote. Obviously any time you lose a major sponsor it's a blow, but keeping things status quo shows the confidence that Terry has in this series and in building for the future. That ASCS title should be wide open this year, as Blake Hahn had won it the previous two years, but he told Speed Sport back in November that his plan for 2023 is to focus more on 410 racing this season. That could mean an open door for someone like Wayne Johnson, Matt Covington, or possibly a newcomer. The series will again be streamed live on FloRacing and the first race is coming up in a few weeks, on March 17th at Devil's Bowl Speedway in Texas.

Four shows today across the streaming services. FloRacing has the late added Lincoln Speedway 410 show and FloRacing 24/7. Speed Sport TV has day two from Fayetteville Motor Speedway, and there is DIRTVision Now. To see the full daily streaming schedule any time, head over to dirtrackr.com/watchtonight.

Have a good Thursday out there, we'll see you guys tomorrow!