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Is a Brad Sweet High Limit title a foregone conclusion? | Daily 11-14-2023

On the show today we'll talk through the possible options and if any of them can actually beat Brad Sweet with High Limit in 2024, plus we'll preview the USAC midgets in California. Let's go!

It's Tuesday, November 14th, I'm Justin Fiedler. This is DIRTRACKR Daily.

Over in the DIRTRACKR merch shop this week, new hats are in stock. These are a little different than we've done before, so check them out. They are navy colored, snapback rope hats with the DIRTRACKR logo in puff embroidery. I went ahead and upgraded and got the Imperial brand for these, so they are really nice quality. Since these are snapback, they are one size fits all, and I've got a couple dozen ready to ship. Stock is starting to get low on t-shirts, and available sizes will become more limited, so if you want one, don't wait. There won't be any restocks on these. You can checkout all the DIRTRACKR gear over at shop.dirtrackr.com.

With the business of High Limit mostly settled at this point, the focus for sprint car racing now seems like it's shifting back a bit towards competition, and things like schedules and drivers for next year. That's been evidenced a bit this week by the championship discussion around David Gravel's announced return to full time Outlaw competition in 2024. The rumors about High Limit's plans are now over, and we can get back to a bit of normalcy in how and what we talk about. The top of sprint car racing, at least in terms of championships and full timers, is about to be diluted, with cars and drivers now needing to choose a side. And Brad Sweet and David Gravel, who have been the top two guys in the sport over the last few years, are each going different directions. We've already discussed the Gravel side of this split, but I wanted to do the flip side of this and talk about 2024 for Brad Sweet. In talking to some industry friends and other media members in recent weeks, it seems fairly clear there is a consensus that barring some insanity, Sweet is the heavy favorite for the High Limit championship. Obviously anything can happen, but depending on how the team decisions go, I don't know how you make a case at this point against a Sweet title in 2024. Kyle Larson could take the fight to his brother in law, but he won't be available to run the entire schedule. Gravel has been the closest Outlaw challenger, but he's out of the picture. Carson Macedo is the next closest, but based on the talk out there, I don't know that you can expect this team to flip to High Limit. Everyone else in the Outlaw standings was 500 points or more behind Sweet at the end of the season, and barring epic jumps in performance, none appear close to title contention if any of them swapped series. On the All Star side, it seems clear that Zeb Wise and the Rudeen 26 are going High Limit, but battling Tyler Courtney for a title isn't the same as beating Brad Sweet. Those 26 guys had an incredible end to the year, but the jury is out on if they can maintain that speed over 60 races. Zeb did win the Port Royal Outlaw show, but had never previously had an Outlaw top five. Questions remain about Tyler Courtney's future, and while that 7BC finished strong in Outlaw competition in 2023 with five straight top fives and a win at Port, his average feature finish against the best this year was 10.2. That's not close to the near top five average you'll need to compete against the NAPA 49. As for the big time pick and choose guys, Brent Marks knows what life on tour with the Outlaws looks like, and while he can certainly win any night out, has yet to show the needed consistency. He's come a long way since his last Outlaw year in 2019, but he would also need to take a big step forward. If Anthony Macri were to make the move to full time High Limit, which I I don't believe is super realistic, he's not ready for this challenge either. It takes a few seasons running for a championship to figure out how to do it, and Macri hasn't done that yet. I think the only real, legitimate contender we could have for the High Limit title would be Rico Abreu. The problem is whether you can convince him to do actually sign on and go full time. 2023 was a career year for Rico under the watchful eye of Ricky Warner, with 13 410 wins in 71 races. He did bring the fight to Larson for the High Limit midweek title, and was solid against the Outlaws all year. But even with his speed, he'd need to take a step forward, as his average Outlaw finish was 1.2 spots lower than Sweet's. What's even worse for all of the guys I've mentioned, is Sweet's stats are based on him racing Outlaw quality fields every night. So you can imagine that with a bit of dilution, those numbers will be even better, which means his competition needs to do even more. In thinking about this, I even considered whether a format change would make a difference here. It's clear that Brad likes the Outlaw setup, but I don't think using the heat race inversions like the All Stars do would change much. Brad was second in the series in 2023 in heat race average finish, and in the top five in heat race plus minus. He can go forward when necessary. I even looked at his Chili Bowl results to see how he does with passing points, and even the added complication with that format doesn't seem to matter. Six career Chili Bowl main event top tens, eight prelim night top tens, a positive heat race plus minus, and four heat wins. Sweet's quote unquote worst average finish by track size is on 1/2 miles, but even there he's managed a seventh place result on average over the past seven Outlaw seasons, which includes 16 wins. I don't know how you beat this guy, and I'm not convinced that anyone he's going to be racing against in 2024 has the recipe either. I don't mean to paint a bleak or negative picture here, but it doesn't look great. Drop a comment, let me know if you think Brad's name is already on the championship check for next year.

Out in California tonight, the USAC midget west coast swing gets rolling with a stop at Bakersfield Speedway. Placerville and the Hangtown 100 is coming up this weekend, and then next week around Thanksgiving, we'll have two nights at Merced, and two nights at Ventura. These shows will be a slugfest with all the extra names expected to race, and we've talked about a bunch of them, including Carson Macedo and Spencer Bayston, Kyle Larson is racing at Placerville, Buddy Kofoid, and plenty more. Logan Seavey comes home to California with a 225 point lead in the standings, and is very much in control of the USAC National Midget championship with these six race nights remaining. Behind Seavey though, things in the standings are wide open with just 76 points separating second through sixth. Justin Grant, Bryant Wiedeman, Ryan Timms, Daison Pursley, and Jade Avedisian all still have plenty to play for over the next two weeks. Gavin Miller appears to be headed towards the rookie of the year award. Looking at tonight specifically, Thomas Meseraull is the defending event winner, but there are plenty of question marks for TMez as he heads west with a new car and new operation following his departure from RMS Racing. They did get to shake down the new John Farrell built MF1 chassis with the Engler Ford power, but the car has yet to appear in competition. Buddy Kofoid won two in a row at Bakersfield in 2020 and 2021, and hasn't finished worse than seventh in six USAC midget appearances this season. He had two victories during Indiana Midget Week, but since June has only raced twice, at Gas City and at the BC39. If you are setting fantasy lineups or pool picks coming up, don't forget the USAC midgets are one of the series we track at dirtrackr.com/analytics. The last four years worth of results are available, which includes 122 races and 399 drivers. Results, driver pages, and a bunch of stats are available for free. If you aren't in California and want to watch tonight, FloRacing is the place to be.

That's it for the show today. Hope you guys have a great Tuesday out there, we'll see you back here tomorrow.