When it became clear several weeks ago that Brad Sweet and David Gravel would be chasing two different championships in 2024, it would be hard to fault someone for penciling in Gravel as the next World of Outlaws champion. After all, he has finished second in the standings in each of the last three seasons, and the man who has beaten him (and everyone else) for the past half-decade is no longer in the way. Surely 2024 will be the best opportunity Gravel has ever had to become a champion of the most prestigious tour in dirt track racing.

Except it likely won’t be that simple. On Thursday evening, the full 2024 World of Outlaws schedule was released, and the changes are abundant. With the entrance of High Limit Racing onto the national sprint car scene, many tracks were forced to pick one side of the fence or the other. Several mainstays of the World of Outlaws schedule opted to make the switch to High Limit, leaving several gaping holes on the Outlaw schedule that needed filling. Now that things have become official, we are left with a World of Outlaws season that will look very different than the one in which Gravel finished runner-up three straight times.

The first shake-up was publicized about 24 hours before the schedule was made official, when Jeremy Elliott at Sprint Car Unlimited broke the news that Port Royal Speedway would not host a World of Outlaws event in 2024. While Gravel has never won at the half-mile in 30 appearances there between Outlaw, All Star, and local events, he does have three podium finishes there in Outlaw competition.

Someone who might not shed a tear over Port Royal’s absence, though, is Carson Macedo. The California native has never finished better than eighth there with the World of Outlaws, and a fifth place run in this season’s Tuscarora 50 was his best finish ever at the track. 

Everyone knows about Gravel’s bridesmaid status over the past few years, but it’s also important to remember that Macedo has finished third each of the last three seasons, and his gap to Gravel has averaged just 76 points over that span. While the team has not publicly confirmed their 2024 plans, the return of the Jason Johnson Classic to the Outlaw tour should erase any doubt over whether or not the 41 will remain on tour full-time. A few schedule changes that work in favor of Macedo could throw a wrench into what many are calling Gravel’s championship to lose.

Another staple of the Outlaw schedule that will be gone in 2024 is the Memorial Day event at Lawrenceburg Speedway. Judging by a post on the track’s Facebook page, the promoters at Lawrenceburg were not informed of the change until the schedule went public, which suggests that they do not have a High Limit date lined up in place of the Outlaw show.

Neither Gravel nor Macedo have ever won at the southern Indiana oval before, but Gravel does have five finishes inside the top five. Meanwhile, Macedo’s five career appearances at Lawrenceburg have resulted in finishes of second, ninth, 12th, 13th, and 16th, which means that another one of Macedo’s worst tracks is now no longer a factor. 

Instead, the Outlaws will wrap up the holiday weekend with a return to Ohio’s Fremont Speedway. While Macedo was not a full-time Outlaw the last time the tour went there in 2016, he does have two wins and four top-fives in five Fremont appearances with the FAST series. On the other hand, Gravel has made 20 starts at Fremont between the various series, but has no wins and only five top-fives to his name.

The World of Outlaws will also return to Jacksonville Speedway for the first time since 2021, and it should be another change that benefits Macedo. In two career Outlaw starts at Jacksonville, Macedo won in 2019 and finished fourth in 2021, while Gravel has results of third, sixth, ninth, and a B-Main exit in four attempts at the Illinois bullring.

One other notable change to the schedule is the removal of the Pacific Northwest trip around Labor Day weekend, which will now fall under High Limit sanction. The two have had similar results at Skagit, with two wins and a 6.25 average finish for Gravel compared to one win and a 7.18 average for Macedo. However, the removal of the Monday night stop at Grays Harbor will not do Macedo any favors, having scored a win and three podium finishes in four appearances in Elma.

Instead, the World of Outlaws will head straight to California for their September west coast swing. Stockton, Bakersfield, Merced, and Tulare were all part of the spring west coast run that was eliminated after 2022, and are returning to the schedule for the first time since. Given Macedo’s background, more events in California should help his title chances more than any other schedule change, but the numbers tell a different story. Gravel has three Outlaw wins between those four tracks while Macedo only has one, which came at Merced in 2022. Gravel also has ten top-fives in 28 starts at the returning California tracks, while Macedo has just four in 22 appearances.

Will 2024 finally be Gravel’s year? There’s a very good chance of that being the case. But while Sweet’s departure may have left the door open for a new champion, there are several others looking to cut in line and barge on in.